The discussion surrounding Germany's rearmament acquires a new dimension following allegations by the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) that Berlin is allegedly working on the development of nuclear weapons.
This is a complaint of particular gravity, which so far has not been confirmed by independent sources, while the German government has not given an official response.
In recent years, Germany has taken significant steps to strengthen its defense capabilities.
Within this framework, a broad program to strengthen the Bundeswehr has been announced, while recently cooperation with the United Kingdom for the development of a new long-range missile system was also made known.
However, the latest claims by the SVR regarding the possible development of a German nuclear arsenal cause an even greater sensation.
According to the Russian intelligence service, the Bundeswehr could acquire its first nuclear munitions even within a year.
The German government did not proceed with an official denial at the highest level.
Deputy Government Spokesperson Steffen Meyer limited himself to stating that Germany already participates in NATO's nuclear deterrence mechanism and, therefore, the acquisition of a national nuclear arsenal is not considered necessary.
This positioning was interpreted by some analysts as particularly cautious, without directly answering the claims of the SVR.
Germany is a contracting party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), which entered into force in 1968 and has been signed by 191 states.
Article 2 of the treaty prohibits non-nuclear states from developing, acquiring, or receiving assistance to manufacture nuclear weapons, while Article 1 imposes corresponding obligations on already nuclear powers so as not to transfer technology or materials that could lead to the development of nuclear weapons by third countries.
Boris Martsinkevich: If the information is true, it is an issue that must be raised at the UN
Nuclear energy expert and editor-in-chief of Geoenergetika.ru, Boris Martsinkevich, commenting on the claims of the SVR in Svobodnaya Pressa, notes that he is not in a position to know the sources of the Russian intelligence.
However, he argues that if the information proves to be true, then it would be a direct violation of an international treaty and the issue should be raised at the United Nations (UN).
At the same time, he points out that Germany has also accepted the inspection regime of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which possesses the capability to detect highly enriched uranium and plutonium through on-site inspections as well as technical monitoring means.
Boris Martsinkevich also refers to the case of Iran, arguing that, despite decades-long accusations regarding the development of a nuclear weapon, IAEA inspectors have presented no evidence of the existence of a military nuclear program.
According to him, regular international inspections have been conducted at Iranian facilities since 2015, without claims regarding the construction of a nuclear bomb being confirmed.
According to the Russian expert, such a timeline is considered extremely difficult.
As he explains, Germany already possesses uranium enrichment facilities through the company Urenco, which operates with the participation of Germany, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands.
However, uranium enrichment alone is not sufficient for the construction of a nuclear warhead.
Crucial to this is the development of advanced uranium or plutonium metallurgy, a particularly complex process requiring specialized know-how and years of industrial infrastructure.
Especially regarding plutonium, it can only be extracted through the reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel.
According to Boris Martsinkevich, Germany does not currently possess the necessary facilities for such a process, while the construction of corresponding units in Europe usually requires about 15 years.
Consequently, he estimates that the development of a full nuclear weapons program cannot be completed within a period of just one year.
Boris Martsinkevich recalls that India and Pakistan possess nuclear weapons without having signed the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.
Israel also is not a contracting party to the treaty and is widely considered to possess a nuclear arsenal, without having confirmed it officially.
Conversely, North Korea officially withdrew from the treaty before proceeding with the development of nuclear weapons.
A different example cited is South Africa, which after the end of the apartheid regime voluntarily abolished its nuclear program and proceeded with the complete abandonment of its nuclear arsenal.
It is noted that the claims of the SVR regarding the development of nuclear weapons by Germany have not been confirmed by independent international organizations or other reliable sources, while so far there is no official documentation proving the existence of such a program.
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